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Prediction for CME (2025-11-05T22:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-05T22:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42462/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a full halo directed towards the north/northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. This event is observed as a partial halo directed towards the northeast as seen in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M8.6 flare and subsequent eruption from Active Region 14274 (N30E41) starting around 2025-11-05T22:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. Dimming is observed northwest of the eruption site as seen in GOES SUVI 195 imagery, indicating likely northwest deflection of this event. Field line movement is also observed to the northeast as seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 imagery. Additionally, post eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2025-11-05T23:00Z in GOES SUVI 195. An arrival signature which may be associated with this CME is characterized by a small, short-duration increase in B_total from ~9 nT to ~12 nT that was associated with an flip in B_z orientation to predominantly southward, leading to a moderate geomagnetic storm between 2025-11-08T00:00Z and 03:00Z. The flip in B_z was accompanied by a phi angle flip and minor decreases in speed and density.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-07T21:54Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-08T04:37Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-06 01:49
 - Time at C2: 2025-11-05 22:23
 - Radial speed: 1033.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 57 deg
 - Eruption location: N42E10
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 715.90 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-11-08 04:37 (i.e. predicted transit time: 54.23 hours)
Lead Time: 40.87 hour(s)
Difference: -6.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2025-11-06T05:02Z
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